i've been running ubb classic since 2003 - i never thought my forum would grow beyond 1000 members, with light traffic. wrong. i have over 20,000 members, a private quad core UNIX server with unlimited file space and bandwidth. i wish i never started a flat file forum, should gone with php.
moral - if you're SURE your forum won't grow, ubb classic is too easy to use ... else, go with mysql-based forum software, like the free smf.